Oscars 2017: Major categories predictions

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It’s Oscars week! On January 24 La La Land made history with a record-tying 14 Academy Awards nominations and is expected the wind up the big winner on February 26. But, to be fair, this has been a great year for movies, with incredible movies and performances that would have easily taken the award home any other year… let’s just face it, I’m still disappointed with Spotlight winning Best Picture last year (good film, but not Oscar worthy). Now as the final votes pour in ahead of tomorrow (February 21)’s deadline, here is a compilation of this year’s Oscar predictions in the major categories (picture, director, acting and screenplay categories) from Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, IndieWire and Gold Derby, and our predictions based on these results. Stay tuned this week for our full list of predictions!

 

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Variety – Last update: Feb. 13, 2017

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Hidden Figures

Best Director

  1. Damien Chezelle – La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
  3. Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Best Actor

  1. Denzel Washington – Fences
  2. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone – La La Land
  2. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
  3. Natalie Portman – Jackie

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  2. Dev Patel – Lion
  3. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis – Fences
  2. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
  3. Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Moonlight
  2. Lion
  3. Arrival

Best Original Screenplay

  1. La La Land
  2. Manchester by the Sea
  3. Hell or High Water

 

hollywoodreporter-e1478702276587

The Hollywood Reporter – Last update: Feb. 14, 2017

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Manchester by the Sea

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
  3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor

  1. Denzel Washington – Fences
  2. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone – La La Land
  2. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
  3. Natalie Portman – Jackie

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
  3. Dev Patel – Lion

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis – Fences
  2. Naomie Harris – Moonlight
  3. Nicole Kidman – Lion

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Moonlight
  2. Hidden Figures
  3. Lion

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Manchester by the Sea
  2. La La Land
  3. Hell or High Water

captura-de-pantalla-2017-02-19-a-las-13-16-38

IndieWire – Last update: January 31, 2017

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Manchester by the Sea

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
  2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
  3. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Best Actor

  1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  2. Denzel Washington – Fences
  3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone – La La Land
  2. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
  3. Natalie Portman – Jackie

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  2. Jeff Bridges – Moonlight
  3. Dev Patel – Lion

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis – Fences
  2. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
  3. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Moonlight
  2. Arrival
  3. Fences

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Manchester by the Sea
  2. La La Land
  3. Hell or High Water

 

captura-de-pantalla-2017-02-19-a-las-13-16-50

Gold Derby – Last update: February 19, 2017

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Moonlight
  3. Hidden Figures

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
  2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
  3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor

  1. Denzel Washington – Fences
  2. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Best Actress

  1. Emma Stone – La La Land
  2. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
  3. Natalie Portman – Jackie

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  2. Dev Patel – Lion
  3. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis – Fences
  2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
  3. Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Moonlight
  2. Arrival
  3. Hidden Figures

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Manchester by the Sea
  2. La La Land
  3. Hell or High Water

 

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What do these predictions mean? The results are pretty unanimous in all the categories and with no big surprises at least in these categories (except maybe in for Best Actor). La La Land is basically going to win Best Picture. Although Moonlight is ranked as a serious competitor in all these polls, none consider Barry Jenkins’ exquisite film the frontrunner. Moreover, La La Land has swept every major award except for the SAG Award for Best Ensemble (a surprising snub considering it wasn’t even nominated). But again, Hollywood loves movies about showbiz. It is also to bear in mind Oscar voters, especially since the new Oscar voting process (which makes voters rank the nominees from 1 to 5), root for crowd-pleasing films about characters who overcome problems and leave aside films that generate a polarized opinion. Yes, Moonlight is incredible, but it is not for everyone.

Damien Chazelle, Emma Stone, Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali should have their Oscar speech ready, since they are ranked at #1 in every poll. It is honestly impossible that Viola Davis doesn’t win her long-awaited Academy Award for her performance in Fences after taking home every major award this season: Critic’s Choice, Golden Globe, SAG Award and BAFTA. Before the start of awards season Natalie Portman seemed destined to win her second Oscar for Jackie, but having lost the latest awards the race comes to Emma Stone and Isabelle Huppert, though it’s easy to predict Stone will easily win her first Oscar at the age of 28 (Huppert has been critically acclaimed but has been snubbed in some of the major awards like the SAG and BAFTA and we can also wonder whether Oscar voters will watch a French film that is not even nominated in the Best Foreign Language Film category).

 

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As for the Best Actor category, recent predictions show the race is close. Casey Affleck seems destined to win in this category, but Denzel Washington’s SAG Awards has made him the frontrunner in the majority of polls compared in this article (3/4). Both performances are great, but Affleck’s history of sexual harassment has raised questions on whether the Academy should only focus on art and leave aside personal behavior (especially after Mel Gibson has been welcomed back into the Academy with his film Hacksaw Ridge, nominated for six Oscars, including Best Picture and Director). However, I personally believe that in spite of these predictions, Casey Affleck is going to win: after all he has taken home the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, while Washington wasn’t even nominated for the latter.

Mixed opinions come in the 2nd and 3rd place of each category, but considering there is no runner-up award at the Academy Awards (otherwise Meryl Streep would have at least 10 awards), these results only show possible yet improbable surprises.

Now, taking these results into consideration, here are our predictions:

Best Picture: La La Land

Best Director: Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Best Actor: Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress: Emma Stone – La La Land

Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea

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One thought on “Oscars 2017: Major categories predictions

  1. Thank you for this article! This year I find the Oscars particularly exciting with such emotional movies. I must admit, I still did not get to see all favorites of this year’s Academy Award nominations — but there is still a week left 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

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